Task 4.1: Set-up and maintain dynamic ecosystem model PICUS v1.54 for wind disturbance simulation. The PICUS model contains interrelated submodels of wind and bark beetle disturbances and will be made available to demonstrate the applicability of the newly developed storm proxies in large scale applications.
Task 4.2: An international invited workshop on wind disturbance simulation will be organized. Workshop participants will be invited experts (see confirmed participations in the Annex). Current state, limitations, possible solutions and future developments in wind disturbance modelling and simulation will be discussed. Outcome will be a review paper for an international SCI-journal.
Task 4.3: For validation of the newly developed storm proxies developed in WP3 the static predictive wind damage models from Pasztor et al. (2015) will be refitted and compared with the initial equations. New model parameters will be used in Task 4.1 to update the PICUS model.
Task 4.4: The applicability of the new storm proxies in large scale applications will be demonstrated. First, the PICUS model will be used to simulate forest development and wind and bark beetle disturbances for Austrian forests based on data oft he Austrian National Inventory (ANI) fort he historic period 2003-2015. Simulated tree mortality from disturbances will be compared with regional data oft the Forest Damage Monitoring System. Second, the same model set-up will be used to drive Austrian forest development under 2-3 transient RCM climate change scenarios from the ÖKS15 data set over a 90 year period until 2100. The new gust wind speed proxies will replace the standard RCM wind speed data.